Scoble notwithstanding, most of the new Web 2.0 services will fail.
I expressed earlier why, but I did not have a good metaphor. I just thought of one. It's gross and graphic, but as happens so often, the gross and graphic serve quite well to express truth. Something that works fills a need that has not been filled before. Something that does not attempts to make that need easier for no good reason.
A need:
I want to write about what happens in my daily life, without having to worry about technical details (example, BlogSpot).
My analogy:
I want to be able to void my bowels without having to go outside and go to the doodoo-pit (example: in-door toilets).
Not a need:
I want to be able to share pictures with people (example: you can already do this through e-mail, your IM client, or you can just print them).
My analogy:
I want to be able to get toilet paper off the roll without having to actually pull physical paper. Can't I just wave in it's general direction and have it fly off the spool?
That's my point in an admittedly fairly gross nutshell. This is the point I'd love to chew over with Scoble -- preferably, over drinks.